A poll conducted by Ngozi Okonjo Iweala Polls on behalf of the Atedo NA Peterside Foundation has shown that Labor Party Mr Peter Obi would win if the Nigerian presidential election were held today.
The poll released this month points to a three-horse presidential race between Obi, Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party.
They described Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party, who came fourth in the poll, as a ‘dark horse’.
“The results showed a significant lead for Mr. Peter Obi: 21% of voters suggested voting for him if the presidential election were to be held today; and 13% each proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, both of whom are in second place. dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 3% of voters proposing to vote for him,” said a statement from the ANAP foundation announcing the result of the polls.
The statement added that Obi’s 8 percentage point lead at this early stage is significant, but not enough to completely separate him from a leading group of candidates who scored 21%, 13% and 13% respectively.
It says undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate are as high as 32% and 15% respectively, adding that the gender distribution of undecided voters shows that 39% of women are undecided versus 27% of male voters.
The percentage of registered voters according to the ANAP foundation is as follows in each of the zones – 99% in the Northeast, 90% in the South, North and Northwest respectively. The lowest registered voter rates were in the Southeast at 88% and the Southwest at 85%.
“When asked if the respondents were aware of the various candidates vying for the presidency, the data collected revealed that 99% of the respondents were aware of the APC’s Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. 98% knew about Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the PDP. 95% knew Mr. Peter Obi from LP and 74% knew Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP. All other candidates scored below 55% in brand awareness.
“In addition, the data summarizes the top five reasons why voters are more likely to vote in the upcoming elections, including: – The need to address insecurity (45%), the economy (20%), education (9%) , unemployment (7%) and poverty reduction (4%).
“46% of respondents would like to see their favorite presidential candidates participate in a televised interview and/or debate, with the interview/debates covering topics such as their party manifestos, issues of security, economics, education, job creation, healthcare and agriculture, among others.
“Notably, 69% of 18-25 year olds, 76% of 26-35 year olds, 77% of 36-45 year olds, 87% of 46-60 year olds and 89% of 61- seniors. replied that they would certainly vote in the upcoming elections. The age groups that showed the greatest willingness to vote were those between 46-60 and 61+ years. On average, the poll shows that nearly 8 in 10 registered voters are absolutely confident they will vote in the next presidential election. If they remain committed, we could witness a huge turnout in the February 2023 elections. In addition, Mr. Peter Obi led the pack in virtually all age categories, ie his leadership was not limited to the young.
“While these poll results show some significant trends, it is important to note that the battle ahead is in the hands of the undecided/swing voters, as it appears they would ultimately decide which candidate will lead the way to to come forward as the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria in the 2023 presidential election.
In summary, our September 2022 polls are inconclusive in terms of establishing a clear winner, as the undecided voters are big enough to turn the tables. However, ANAP Foundation has concluded that the trends are clear enough to identify the frontrunners and so our next polls will focus only on the 4 leading candidates.
Nigeria’s presidential elections will take place in February 2023 and campaigns will start at the end of September.